The Politics of Severe Weather and School Closings

Here in the Deep South,  it is a well known fact that a mere half-inch of snow can cause school closures. I know that folks who live with snow laugh at this notion, and not without some justification. However, if you had ever been in the South when snowflakes begin to fall, the mass hysteria that can grip the populace is interesting. I hope that some sociologists get a grant to study it one day.

Just moments ago I received notification that the school Little One attends will be closed early. I have copied the email notification here:


THERE WILL BE A THREE-HOUR EARLY DISMISSAL OF SCHOOL TODAY.  EACH SCHOOL WILL DISMISS THREE HOURS EARLIER THAN ITS NORMAL DISMISSAL TIME.
BUSES WILL RUN REGULAR ROUTES.  ALL AFTER SCHOOL ACTIVITIES ARE CANCELLED - INCLUDING ATHLETIC, FINE ARTS AND EXTENDED DAY. 

There is a threat of severe weather this afternoon, including severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. I include here a snippet from the local newspaper's online edition:

As for the possibility of a more severe weather scenario, The NSPC predicts a less than 5 percent chance of seeing any tornado activity in the state, but repeats the warnings of possible straight line winds and heavy rain.
The forecast for most of the state calls for the potential of damaging straight line winds in excess of 60 mph and rain amounts from 1 to 3 inches. There is a wind advisory for the entire state with frequent wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph outside of the thunderstorm activity predicted.

Closing schools across the state with only a chance of tornadoes at 5%? 

Alabama does have a history of deadly tornadoes, and as recently as April 2011 we had a series of really bad storms. I understand the need to alert and warn the populace of the storms, but are the community's children safer dispersed or together at the schools? From a purely statistical point of view, I would think that if there were a tornado, the odds of losing the life of a child is greater if the children are dispersed. If all of the kids were in school and the school were hit by a tornado, then the chance for a catastrophic loss of life is present.

There is no easy answer for this. I deal in risk analysis for a living, and I suppose when I think about that dispersing the children makes the most sense if the ultimate goal is to reduce the overall risk to the student population. There are other factors to consider, though. It is no big deal for me to work from home, or if I had to, to use 1/2 of a vacation day to collect Little One. There are many families that may not be as able to miss work, or arrange for transportation or child care for the wee ones.

What is the economic impact in the loss of productivity from all the parents that have to leave work early, both for the workers and the employers? I know that we like to think that we cannot equate a human life - and especially a child's life - to a numeric equation that involves a dollar sign, but that should be a factor in the equation. I understand that the school should not consider the economic impact of the decision, as that is not their mission. But perhaps as a community we should.

I know that in my state the threat of tornadoes is very real, and memories of widespread destruction of property and the loss of life are vivid and terrible. Perhaps these are driving the decisions of the day.